Farmers pin hopes on new agricultural calendar to weather climate variabilities (2024)

“Many things we do in life are probably in response to our anxiety,” says Wayanad-based farmer Rajesh Krishnan as he reminisces about the “hard years” of farming when he often wondered, “What next?”

It was the year 2017. A rainfall deficit of 37 percent forced the Kerala government to declare Wayanad district drought-hit. “We don’t have data, but I’m certain we lost 70% of our crops that year,” says Krishnan. While the damage was significant for all farmers, Krishnan recalls that the emotional toll was particularly heavy on young farmers like him who were new to farming. A former Greenpeace-campaigner-turned-farmer, he had moved to Wayanad from Bengaluru only a few years earlier. “The drought was severe, but the traditional farmers of Wayanad seemed better equipped to face it,” he shares.

Invaluable advice he received from an Adiya tribal farmer, Bolan, stood Krishnan in good stead during those gruelling drought years. While Krishnan was frantically looking for water to irrigate every stretch of paddy field he owned, Bolan advised him to focus on irrigating one field instead. “He knew the fields were interconnected and irrigating one meant water in others as well. An in-depth understanding of landscapes exists among traditional farmers,” says Krishnan who believes that indigenous wisdom of the land should be documented and shared.

The hardship during that drought year prompted him and some other farmers to set up a Farmer Producer Organisation (FPO) named TAPCo (Thirunelly Agri Producer Company Limited) to collectively address multiple uncertainties, including climate and market fluctuations. “A standard market price and easy procurement were the first two things we implemented,” he says.

TAPCo created a system where farmers who are registered with the organisation will have their entire produce procured by the collective at a price decided before sowing. The collective wanted to give back farmers the power to decide what to sow which had been taken away from them by the government’s single-price procurement system.

Agriculture calendar takes shape

Recognising the need to harness traditional wisdom to tackle new challenges posed by climate change, farmers brainstormed and developed an agricultural calendar to guide them. There are roughly five farming communities in Wayanad — the two tribal communities of Mullukurumba and Kurichya and Wayanadan Chetti, Nair and Jain. The two tribal communities involved in farm labour – the Adiya and the Paniya, too are keepers of traditional knowledge.

While the paddy farming in the district follows two cycles — nanja during the southwest monsoon and punja thereafter — most Wayanad farmers traditionally follow only the nanja cultivation, according to C.K. Vishnudas, founder of Wayanad-based research institute, Hume Centre for Ecology and Wildlife Biology, who gave guidance for the calendar. Hence, TAPCo came up with a rudimentary six-month calendar from June to December focused on nanja paddy cultivation.

Then, the disastrous floods hit Kerala in August 2018. The southernmost state received 42% excess rainfall between the months of June and August that monsoon, leading to severe flooding and landslides. Nearly 500 human casualties were reported and over 1.1 million people were displaced. The state suffered an economic loss of $3.4 billion, as estimated by The World Bank. Wayanad district reported 26% excess rainfall in the two-month period. This led to land subsidence and landslides that took six lives. There was considerable crop loss, too — an area of 1876.80 hectares witnessed more than 33% crop loss in the district.

Farmer Praveena Jyothiprakash of Mananthavady village lost her three-acre banana cultivation in rains that year. “I couldn’t harvest a single bunch of bananas,” Praveena recollects. “The paddy fields too, were inundated and became weak for subsequent farming. It’s a time that I don’t want to revisit.”

This was followed by another year of excess rainfall in 2019. The repeated extreme weather events made the farmers work on solutions that addressed the impacts of these events, including an improved calendar for agricultural planning, with ample focus on climate adaptation.

Understanding climate change

After the floods, Vishnudas and team worked on a new landscape susceptibility map. An analysis of the rainfall-affected areas made them realise that Wayanad’s landscape was not hom*ogenous and a one-size-fits-all solution did not suffice. There is a huge variability in rainfall with certain areas getting around 600 cm of rain while some other areas reporting 350 cm rainfall and lower areas getting about 250 cm.

“The general understanding of Wayanad as a part of Western Ghats is only partially true,” explains Krishnan. Some areas are an extension of the Mysore plateau that exhibit drier weather patterns and there are regions that get medium rainfall, too. This reality, unfortunately, does not reflect in any policies or government decisions, according to him. The popular short duration paddy varieties such as Aathira, Uma, etc. promoted by the government are best suited for lower plains like Alappuzha and Thrissur where the rains are available for shorter duration. Krishnan highlights that Wayanad farmers have evolved over time with mid- and long-duration varieties of paddy – based on the time the paddy takes to grow – to suit the six-month-rainfall the region receives. “Traditionally, some 30 different varieties with over 150-days duration are cultivated in Wayanad, of which, 10-12 varieties are cultivated on a larger scale. The most popular Wayanadan thundi is a 165-days variety. Wayanad even had 180-day varieties in the past. They are best suited for the long period of rain we get, starting from May and going on till December with let-ups for brief periods in between,” Krishnan says.

Vishnudas has observed a noticeable shift in the district’s weather patterns since 2012, marked by alterations in the onset period of the monsoon and an uptick in the frequency of extreme rainfall days. “Many farmers are unaware of these changes,” he remarks. “The traditional weather patterns have shifted; now, we experience intense rainfall of about 50 cm on certain days, leading to landslides.” This concern led Hume to install 180 rain gauges across the district and disseminate their readings to over 10,000 subscribed farmers through various channels such as WhatsApp groups and SMS. This early warning system comes in handy for farmers to tune their agricultural activities to nature’s altering rhythms.

Farmer P.J. Manuel, with six decades of farming experience under his belt, has keenly observed shifts in weather patterns. “In the past, the rains fell diagonally, but now they come straight down with much greater intensity, leading to soil erosion,” he notes. Additionally, Manuel remarks on changes in wind patterns, citing the emergence of strong winds accompanying rainfall, a departure from historical norms where rain followed wind.

“The intensity of rainfall has increased; what used to be spread over 15-16 days now pours down in a single day,” Manuel observes. He also reflects on traditional practices, highlighting how paddy farmers in Wayanad used to leave harvested crops in the field for seven days and nights. This practice, based on the belief that freshly harvested paddy required exposure to seven suns (heat) and seven moons (cold) for proper threshing and storage, now faces challenges. “If we were to expose the paddy to the intense heat of the seven suns we experience today, the seeds would be rendered useless,” he remarks.

Additionally, Wayanad’s location makes it vulnerable to effects of warming and disturbances in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, points out Vishnudas. Situated at elevations ranging from 700 m to over 2000 m, Wayanad witnesses significant temperature fluctuations in a day. “Previously, temperatures would rise from 15˚C in the early morning to around 25˚C by afternoon. Nowadays, due to warming, we’re seeing a leap to 35˚C in the afternoons. This drastic temperature variability poses yet another challenge,” he adds.

Calendar evolves with new learnings

The latest understanding of the district’s changing weather patterns is being integrated into the agricultural calendar, which includes a feedback mechanism. Farmers are encouraged to record their daily observations of both weather conditions and crop status in the feedback column provided in the calendar. These insights are then used to update the following year’s calendar, ensuring it reflects the most current and relevant information for effective agricultural planning. Apart from Hume and TAPCo, local non-profit organisations like Thanal, Keystone Foundation, Asha, Save Our Rice and Ecofriends are also actively involved in the creation and promotion of the calendar.

As an encouraging outcome, farmers who consulted the 2024-2025 calendar, released in April 2024, were prepared for the unexpected April heat wave resulting from Indian Ocean warming and the unusually high summer rains in May due to a depression in the Bay of Bengal. The calendar provides a comprehensive list of precautions necessary to maintain soil productivity during the April heat wave. Moreover, it issues a warning against engaging in any form of ploughing or tilling if signs indicate rains intensifying in May. This proactive approach enabled farmers to adapt their practices accordingly, mitigating potential risks and optimising crop yields.

Another marked change from the previous calendars is the adoption of moon phases which is typically followed by Wayanad’s farming community. Vishnudas explains that the Gregorian solar calendar holds little relevance for local farmers, as farming in the state is deeply rooted in the Malayalam lunar calendar. For instance, Kerala’s farming calendar starts on April 14, celebrated as Vishu or the new year in the state.

Suma T.R, anthropologist and head of food systems research at Hume emphasises the historical significance of lunar phases in guiding farming practices in the state. In the absence of electricity in the past, relying on natural light sources like the sun and the moon made practical sense. Most activities like threshing were kept for the night to avoid the day time heat. “Five days before and after the new moon and full moon days were considered the right time for farm activities. No work was done during the new moon,” she says. Farmers also believe there will be more pest attacks if any farm activity is done on the new moon. “There is often intense rain on the new moon of the month of Karkidakam (July-August) which makes sowing impractical on that day. That’s another reason,” Krishnan weighs in.

That is not to say the sun is any less important for Kerala’s farming communities. The 12-day event of “Thiruvathira Njattuvela” that falls in the month of June is critical for all crops in the state, especially pepper. Marked by the presence of a shining sun and intermittent rains, the farmers rest a lot of hope and faith in the effects of this annual event on a good harvest. This, too, however is changing.

Krishnan elaborates, “Most paddy farming activities in the state are based on inflorescence timing which is typically in the Malayalam month of Thulam that falls mid-October on the popular Gregorian calendar. If the inflorescence happens then, the paddy is ready to be harvested in December or the Malayalam month of Vrishchikam. With this understanding, farmers work backwards to decide on other activities preceding it such as puddling, sowing, replanting, etc.”

As per the traditional system, sowing is mostly kept for the month of July, the hottest month in the tropics but typically marked by heavy rains in Kerala. “The rain should start in June and intensify in July. That’s when you puddle the land and prepare it for sowing,” Krishnan says. But this has changed with the rain failing to set in on time or gradually intensifying.

While the first calendar was focused on paddy farming, the subsequent calendars tried to incorporate other popular crops such as coffee, pepper, etc., with the latest calendar giving directions on many horticultural crops such as tubers, ladies finger or okra and amaranth that are commonly cultivated in Wayanad.

Historically, Wayanad farmers relied on a variety of calendars beyond the lunar calendar. These include the Krishi Panchangam, an astro-agricultural almanac, as well as another calendar based on specific phases of animal behaviours, known as Aana (elephant) Karanam, Karadi (bear) Karanam, Pakshi (bird) Karanam, and the like. Krishnan explains that there’s a belief that planting a particular crop during a specific Karanam or phase can help avoid any potential destruction from the associated animal. It is speculated that that calendar emerged due to Wayanad’s close proximity to forests, where interactions with wildlife are common.

Better yield with better guidance

In its seventh year, the calendar has successfully addressed many challenges faced by farmers, notes Manuel. However, he remains unconvinced that a sufficient number of farmers are using it to its full potential.

“We haven’t gathered data on the profit from calendar usage or the effectiveness of the early warning system, but we can confidently say that we have managed to mitigate losses,” Vishnudas affirms. He provides an example from late last year, when a forecast predicted a depression in the Bay of Bengal. “We were able to warn the farmers preparing for harvest 10 days in advance. They were supposed to harvest on the day of the cyclone,” he explains. Without this timely warning, or if farmers had ignored it, they would have faced significant losses due to the practice of leaving the harvest on the field for a few days. “They postponed the harvest, which had a direct positive impact on their income for that season,” he points out.

Vishnudas acknowledges that their work is still ongoing. “The idea is to create individual calendars for different rainfall regions in the district,” he explains. An unexpected gall midge pest attack last year highlighted the farmers’ limited understanding of climate change’s impact on their crops. “Gall midge is typically found in plains and had never been reported in Wayanad before. By the time we identified it, we had already lost almost 70% of our crops,” says Krishnan.

Entomologist Rajan V.P. from the regional agricultural research station in Wayanad discovered that the pest spread uncontrollably due to the absence of its main predator, dragonflies. “The presence of dragonflies was delayed because paddy was sown late last year due to the delay in the customary July rains,” Rajan explains. He notes that Wayanad faces an increased threat from various pests as the climate changes. Brown plant hopper, locally called munha, a paddy pest often found in the plains, has also made its way to the hilly district. Farmers are hopeful that the calendar will soon address these new and emerging challenges.

Some farmers have developed an unwavering faith in the calendar. Praveena, who inherited 10 acres of ancestral land and a green thumb from her father, says she refers to the calendar every day. “Since my father’s passing two years ago, the calendar has filled the space he left, guiding me on how to care for our land,” she explains, affirming that the agricultural calendar is an invaluable asset for Wayanad farmers.

Banner image: Repeated adverse weather events and crop losses have led farmers of Wayanad to design a new agricultural calendar that incorporates traditional farming knowledge and climate variabilities. Image by Abhishek N. Chinnappa for Mongabay.